economy

Will we repeat the real estate crash of 2008?

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Those of us who were in the real estate industry in 2008 when the music stopped in that crazy game of musical chairs we seemed to be playing never want to see that scenario repeated.

It was frightening.

Our incomes plummeted, we had to reduce staffs, great employees left the business (many never to return), real estate lawyers dipped into their retirement and other savings to keep afloat. Real estate lawyers switched to other practice areas. I recently asked a lawyer of retirement age about his plans. His response was that he has no plans to retire because he is still making up the income lost in the crash.

Our business is crazy again.

We hear of houses routinely closing at above listing price in South Carolina. I read a national statistic that suggested more than 40% of houses are going to contract at more than the listing price.  Leading up to 2008, I can vividly remember being amazed that contracts on houses were being sold, sometimes more than once, before a closing could take place. We spent lots of time figuring out whether “flips” were illegal based on their facts. I am a member of a female lawyer page on Facebook, and someone posed the question yesterday asking how other lawyers are closing these multiple-contract transactions.

Why are we here now? Inventory is low. Builders are unable to keep up with the demand created, in part, by the angst of staying at home during COVID leading to appetites for better living space. Many have left cities for areas of less population, and, as always, the sunny South sees a constant influx of those looking for better weather.  Mortgage rates are low. The economy is good. These factors are converging and generally keeping everyone in the industry hopping.

Will the bubble burst again?

I have read everything I can find on what the experts are saying on this topic, and it appears that most economic and housing experts believe we are in much better shape this time around. The main protection appears to be responsible lending. Leading up to 2008, it seemed that anyone who could hold a pen could get a mortgage.  It now appears that loans are being made to more credit-worthy borrowers with decent down payments.

We will see a softening in the market at some point. Mortgage rates will rise resulting in less affordability in the market, and mortgage applications will decline. But that kind of cyclical activity is normal. Our business is accustomed to handling those typical economic and seasonal cycles. Everyone will probably welcome a break in the activity.

I hope and sincerely believe the experts are calling this situation correctly, so hold on for the ride and look forward to the break.

Goodbye old friend

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And hello 2017!

I bought a car on the first business day of 2017.

For most folks, buying a car is not a big deal, but I am definitely not a car person!  I drove my mother’s last car for almost eleven years after her death in 2006 and was embarrassed to shed a few tears at the dealership when I sentimentally traded it in on January 2. That car has 200,000 miles on its odometer! It’s still in great running condition, and I hope it finds a good home with someone, maybe a teenager, who needs safe and inexpensive transportation. Before my mother’s car, I drove a car I bought from a deceased friend’s estate. Are you detecting a pattern in my vehicular history?  Until this week, no car dealership had made a dime on me in the past 15 years!

My colleague and friend, Tom Dunlop, on the other hand, is definitely a car person. He currently drives a bright red late model Mercedes which he will upgrade this spring for the mere reason that two years have passed. His dealership loves him! In addition to trading every two years, Tom takes donuts to the staff when his car is serviced. What a nice guy! We’ve enjoyed that shiny red Mercedes as our lunch vehicle and can’t wait to see what Tom decides will be our new fancy ride in the spring.

new-year-new-startWhy is this car talk relevant to dirt law in 2017? It’s relevant because our success in the housing industry this year may depend on whether Americans and specifically South Carolinians are really home ownership people.

There are some reasons for concern. Interest rates are climbing. The mortgage interest rate deduction is under attack in Congress. The future of the CFPB may be precarious under the new administration and because of pending litigation challenging its constitutionality.  Some financial advisers are recommending renting as a better economic alternative for many Americans. Some retirees are being advised to sell the large homes where they raised their families in exchange for nifty, low-maintenance town homes, condominiums and even rental apartments.

But unlike my personal lack of thirst for new cars, I believe many Americans and many South Carolinians have an enduring thirst for new and upgraded residences. And I believe their thirst is most often quenched only by purchasing those residences. We have been taught that home ownership is an excellent investment vehicle coupled with a tax advantage. This advice goes back several generations. This wisdom is so ingrained that the counsel to retirees to rent shocked me! I had to read it from several sources to believe it was serious and sound advice for some folks.

And, thankfully, the economy is continuing to improve. Zillow is reporting that the U.S. housing market has regained all the value it lost during the housing crisis. South Carolina is particularly poised for success. Charleston is one of the fastest growing markets in the country. Hilton Head is digging out and rebuilding from Hurricane Matthew. The Rock Hill/Fort Mill area is growing toward Charlotte rapidly. It is impossible to ride around Myrtle Beach, Greenville and even Columbia without dodging construction activity. My own office’s numbers have improved during 2016, and I budgeted up for 2017. I suspect most South Carolina dirt lawyers are looking for a better year in 2017 than in 2016 assuming they can maintain their momentum and sustain the excellent staffing that momentum requires.

I am optimistic!  Here’s hoping Americans and South Carolinians continue to be home ownership people. And here’s hoping 2017 is a healthy, happy and prosperous year for you!