One of President Trump’s first official actions affects housing

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The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) announced on January 9 that it planned to reduce mortgage insurance premiums effective January 27. Mortgage insurance protects lenders from borrower defaults and is common where the down payment is less than 20%.

The Democratic view of this issue is that sufficient reserves and four years of economic growth allowed the FHA to pass along some modest savings to consumers. Additionally, the move was viewed as an attempt to help first-time and lower income home buyers to access the market at a time when mortgage rates were rising.

The Republican view is that such reductions put taxpayers at risk by decreasing the funds the FHA has to deal with mortgage defaults. In other words, taxpayers might be at a greater risk for footing the bill for another bailout if FHA’s reserves were reduced.

President Trump’s advisors criticized the Obama administration for adopting new policies as it prepared to leave office. During Dr. Ben Carson’s confirmation hearing for Secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), FHA’s parent agency, he expressed disappointment that the cut was announced so late in President Obama’s term.

On January 20, shortly after he was sworn in, as one of his first substantive actions, President Trump undid this new policy before it took effect by signing an executive order.

HUD then issued a letter stating that more analysis is needed before changes are made, and the rates will remain the same for the time being.

It appears industry groups may have differing opinions on whether President Trump’s executive order will affect home buying. Will this action reduce opportunities for first-time buyers? Or will it eventually allow FHA’s reserves to be increased to a point where it can offer more services to borrowers? Industry groups will continue to weigh in, and this blog will continue to keep South Carolina dirt lawyers posted on developments.

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The housing industry is crying Bah! Humbug!

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Congress may eliminate mortgage interest deduction

Mike Goodwin, the “Bow Tie Comedian” based here in Columbia, mike-goodwin-bowtie-comedianentertained us during lunch at our recent Chicago Title seminar. A joke that bubbled up through his very funny presentation was a line his mother used to keep him on the straight and narrow during his childhood, “what you NOT gonna do is…..”

For example, she would say, what you NOT gonna do is to stand there and hold that refrigerator door open while you try to decide what you want to eat. During one lull in the laughter, Mike said to us, “what you NOT gonna do is sit there and not laugh at my jokes.” (So we laughed.)

While some of us believe America is about to be made great again, some of us might like to borrow Mike’s line to deliver a Bah! Humbug! message to Congress:  What you NOT gonna do is to eliminate, or effectively reduce the effectiveness of, the mortgage interest deduction. Many homebuilders, lenders and real estate agents (and South Carolina dirt lawyers) believe that’s one thing we don’t need 2017.

The mortgage interest deduction is a major driver of the housing market. One reason American dreamers strive for home ownership is to take advantage of this tax break. That, along with the property tax deduction, the points deduction, the PMI deduction and the home office deduction, make owning a home a wise move from a tax standpoint. Eliminating or reducing the effectiveness of the home interest deduction, which many consider as American as apple pie, might put a damper on the improved economy we have been experiencing in 2016.

But that approach is definitely going to be under consideration by Congress, and players in the housing industry are preparing to defend the deduction. The plan under consideration involves not a direct elimination of the deduction, but an indirect attack via an increase of the standardized deductions, now at $6,300 for a single taxpayer and $12,600 for married taxpayers filing jointly. By doubling these standard deductions, many taxpayers would have no need to take the mortgage interest deduction.

The mortgage interest deduction is the largest deduction currently available to homeowners, allowing a write-off of interest from up to a $500,000 loan for a single taxpayer and up to a $1 million loan for joint filers. The deduction is especially important during the early years of a mortgage when the majority of payments are applied to interest rather than principal.

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“Congress … what you NOT gonna do is … “

If a single taxpayer pays mortgage interest of $8,000 in the first of home ownership, for example, that amount exceeds the current standard deduction of $6,300, and that taxpayer would itemize to claim a better tax break. If the standardized deduction is doubled, itemization is much less likely.

President-Elect Trump’s nominee for Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, has stated that the administration is planning to create the largest tax change since Reagan. Simplifying the tax code is one of the stated objectives, and a larger standard deduction is one method of simplification. In addition to the mortgage interest deduction, the charitable deduction would be affected in a similar manner.  Some say that as the standard deduction goes up, the incentive to give is reduced.

Any step that would reduce incentives for homeownership would likely encourage renting rather than buying. Home values might suffer, and the housing industry might suffer as well.

All Americans are interested in the changes that are about to happen, and those of us in the housing industry may be more interested than most! I have already seen prognosticators reducing their optimism about 2017, but I just got off the phone with a local wise man. He said that I should relax. 2017 is going to be a banner year, he said, because America is going to be great again. I hope he’s right!

Into the mystic: Fannie and Freddie predict what is in store for housing in 2017.

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In a sign that the average cost of houses is increasing across the country, the conforming loan limit for loans to be purchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will increase in 2017 for the first time in ten years.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency has announced the maximum conforming loan in most parts of the country (including South Carolina) will increase from $417,000 to $424,100. Stated another way, a borrower will not have to qualify for a “jumbo loan” unless the amount to be borrowed exceeds $424,100.

This change should help qualified buyers, particularly in our coastal areas where home prices are higher, obtain mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, even though credit remains tight and interest rates are likely to increase.

This is the time of the year when all of us involved in the housing industry are charged with looking into the proverbial crystal ball and projecting how we think the real estate market for the new year will compare with the current year.  For what it’s worth (and this and $5 will buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks), I’m projecting around a 3 percent increase for next year in South Carolina. Let me know what your crystal ball is disclosing!